The 2025 PGA Championship is set to unfold at the iconic Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, from May 15-18. With a star-studded field and a challenging course demanding precision, strategy, and no small measure of nerve, the tournament promises memorable drama. Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and Justin Thomas headline the pack of contenders, but who has the edge to claim the Wanamaker Trophy? Let’s break it down.
Course Overview: The Test of Quail Hollow Club
Quail Hollow Club is no stranger to hosting premier events. From the 2017 PGA Championship (won by Justin Thomas) to the 2022 Presidents Cup, it has built a reputation as one of the most demanding courses on the PGA Tour.
Measuring a staggering 7,558 yards, this par-71 course is characterized by its tree-lined fairways, rolling terrain, strategically placed bunkers, and water hazards. Length off the tee is crucial, given the six longest par-4 and par-5 combinations on the Tour are in play here. Players need to excel in driving distance to manage long approaches into firm, undulating greens. Equally, scrambling and putting will be paramount, especially with the greens firming up considerably as the tournament progresses.
The infamous “Green Mile” closing stretch, which encompasses holes 16 through 18, will likely determine the champion. A combination of elevation changes, water hazards, and fast greens ensures that the pressure here will test even the most composed competitors.
The Favorites and Their Chances
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is arguably the man to beat heading into Quail Hollow. Fresh off completing a career grand slam with his Masters victory and three other wins this season, McIlroy is on a tear. The Northern Irishman has a storied history with Quail Hollow, having won there four times—including at its annual Wells Fargo Championship. His record at the course, combined with his league-leading driving distance and strong iron play, makes him a favorite.
Where Rory could face challenges is on the greens. While he has been sharp in putting this season, the Champion Bermuda grass of Quail Hollow has historically been less forgiving to him. Still, his ability to dominate off the tee and tame the long par-4s gives him a massive edge.
Chances of Winning: High, if he can sustain his current form and avoid slip-ups on the putting surfaces.
Scottie Scheffler
Scottie Scheffler, currently one of the most well-rounded players on the PGA Tour, brings consistency and composure to the 2025 PGA Championship. Ranked world No. 1, Scheffler has the skill set to handle Quail Hollow’s challenges. He is exceptional with his irons and has displayed remarkable accuracy combined with a powerful driving game.
Quail Hollow’s brutal closing stretch will likely suit Scheffler’s steady temperament. While his short game remains solid, his putting statistics are slightly behind some of his peers. To win, he’ll need to improve his birdie conversion rate on the shorter par-4s to keep pace with the likes of McIlroy and Justin Thomas.
Chances of Winning: Moderate to High, contingent on converting birdie opportunities.
Justin Thomas
The 2017 PGA Champion at Quail Hollow, Justin Thomas knows how to thrive under the course’s demanding conditions. His two PGA Championship titles highlight his ability to rise to the occasion in golf’s toughest tests. Thomas has been in solid form this season, with four top-10 finishes already and promising statistics in putting average (1.657) and one-putt percentage (44%).
At Quail Hollow, Thomas’s short game and scrambling proficiency will be key. When he’s confident with the putter, he becomes a major threat. Add to that his familiarity with the course, and it’s clear why he’s a dark horse to watch this year.
Chances of Winning: High, if he recreates the magic of his 2017 win and stays precise in the Green Mile stretch.
X-Factors to Watch
While the trio of McIlroy, Scheffler, and Thomas grabs the headlines, other contenders cannot be ignored. Defending champion Xander Schauffele has the poise and versatility to defend his title, while rising star Ludvig Åberg’s long iron play could see him contend. Bryson DeChambeau, known for his power game, might also thrive on Quail Hollow’s lengthy layout, though it remains to be seen if his short game can hold under pressure.
Collin Morikawa, despite being a two-time major winner, has struggled in majors recently and doesn’t have the driving distance to cope with Quail Hollow’s requirements. Unless his putting improves significantly, he might find himself outside the top five.
Predictions
It’s hard to ignore Rory McIlroy’s momentum and track record at Quail Hollow. His long game and history with the course make him the most likely winner, provided his putter doesn’t falter. Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas are well-positioned to chase him down, with Thomas’s knack for excelling under pressure making him a strong alternative pick.
For a sleeper, keep an eye on Ludvig Åberg. His precision and youthful fearlessness could give him an edge on a course that rewards aggressive yet smart play.
Predicted Winner: Rory McIlroy
Runner-Up: Justin Thomas
Third Place: Scottie Scheffler
The 2025 PGA Championship is shaping up to be an epic showdown. With a fierce field and Quail Hollow as the stage, fans and analysts alike are in for a treat. May the best golfer conquer the challenges and seize the Wanamaker Trophy.
