The PGA Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC, from May 12–18, 2025. This par-71, 7,626-yard course is renowned for its narrow fairways, challenging greens, and water hazards. Quail Hollow last hosted the PGA in 2017, where Justin Thomas claimed his first of two PGA titles.
Key Players to Watch
- Scottie Scheffler (World No. 1): Riding high after an 8-stroke victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (31-under total), Scheffler’s all-around game and dominance off the tee make him a co-favorite (5/1 odds). His precision and power are tailor-made for Quail Hollow.
- Rory McIlroy: Fresh off completing his career Grand Slam with a 2025 Masters win, McIlroy’s history at Quail Hollow is unmatched. With four PGA Tour wins at the course and a stellar scoring average (~69.5), he’s a top contender and fan favorite.
- Xander Schauffele: The defending PGA champion (2024) and two-time major winner boasts remarkable consistency, with nine PGA Tour wins and 62 consecutive cuts made. Listed around 12/1, his steady play and Olympic gold medal pedigree make him a strong contender.
- Justin Thomas: A two-time PGA Champion (2017, 2022) and winner of the 2017 PGA at Quail Hollow, Thomas is back in form after his RBC Heritage win in April. His course history and putting prowess position him as a serious threat.
- Collin Morikawa: Known for his precision approach game, Morikawa’s skill set aligns perfectly with Quail Hollow’s demands. The two-time major winner (2020 PGA, 2021 Open) is a popular longshot at 14–20/1 odds.
- Ludvig Åberg: This 24-year-old Swede is a rising star. After finishing solo 2nd in his major debut at the 2024 Masters, Åberg’s calm demeanor and versatile game make him a sleeper pick to watch.
- Jordan Spieth: A win here would complete Spieth’s career Grand Slam, a feat achieved by only six players before him. Though winless since 2022, his recent form (three top-14 finishes in his last four starts) and 40/1 odds make him an intriguing high-upside pick.
- Jon Rahm: The 2021 U.S. Open and 2023 Masters champion brings power and grit to Quail Hollow. With 25/1 odds, Rahm’s major-winning experience makes him a player to respect.
Predictions
- Favorites: Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy lead the pack. Scheffler’s recent dominance and McIlroy’s Quail Hollow mastery make them logical picks for the title.
- Contenders: Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa are strong candidates, with Thomas’s two PGA wins and Morikawa’s iron game perfectly suited for the course. Bryson DeChambeau’s length off the tee also keeps him in the mix.
- Dark Horses: Jordan Spieth’s career Grand Slam quest and Ludvig Åberg’s breakout potential make them exciting value picks. Spieth’s 40/1 odds and Åberg’s rising star status could yield big payoffs for bold bettors.
- Expert Insights: Analytics models highlight Justin Thomas (20/1) as a top value pick, while downplaying Xander Schauffele despite his consistency. Recent form and course history remain key indicators for success.
Betting Trends
- Outright Odds: As of early May, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are 5/1 co-favorites. Bryson DeChambeau and Xander Schauffele follow at 12–20/1, with Ludvig Åberg and Collin Morikawa close behind.
- Public Sentiment: Heavy betting action on Scheffler and McIlroy has made them top sportsbook liabilities. Meanwhile, longshots like Spieth (40/1) and Wyndham Clark (~75/1) attract less attention, keeping their odds high.
- Props & Longshots: Jordan Spieth’s career Grand Slam narrative makes him a popular longshot, while Justin Thomas (20/1) is a frequent expert pick. Notably, Wyndham Clark’s 75/1 win at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship underscores the potential value of veteran major winners.
Who I’m Betting on
1. Justin Thomas to Win (+2000)
Why Bet It:
- Thomas is a two-time PGA Champion (2017, 2022) and notably clinched his first major at Quail Hollow.
- He recently ended a nearly three-year winless streak by capturing the RBC Heritage, showcasing a return to top form.
- Statistically, he’s excelling: ranked 1st in putting average and 2nd in birdie average this season.
- Despite his credentials, his odds remain around +2000, offering substantial value for a proven major winner.
2. Jordan Spieth Top 10 Finish (+4000 to Win)
Why Bet It:
- Spieth is aiming to complete the career Grand Slam, needing only the PGA Championship.
- He has shown consistent form recently, with three top-14 finishes in his last four starts.
- While a win might be ambitious, a top-10 finish is well within reach, and his current odds present a favorable risk-reward scenario.
3. Ludvig Åberg to Win (+1600)
Why Bet It:
- Åberg has quickly risen in the ranks, highlighted by a solo second-place finish at the 2024 Masters.
- His game is well-suited for Quail Hollow’s demands, combining power and precision.
- At +1600, he’s a trendy pick among bettors and analysts, reflecting both his potential and recent performances.
Summary:
- Justin Thomas: A proven major winner returning to form, offering strong value at +2000.
- Jordan Spieth: Motivated by history, with consistent recent performances suggesting a top-10 finish is attainable.
- Ludvig Åberg: A rising star with a game tailored for Quail Hollow, presenting an exciting opportunity at +1600.
